5 Post Season Predictions

Good Day, Naples Friends! Today marks the official kick-off of the first day of the post-season! It’s hard to believe many of our early timers, and still, a fair share of our snowbird residents, head back north the day after Easter. Many of our neighbors purchased in Naples, seeking tax relief by claiming their Florida home as their homestead. They must stay six months and a day to reap those benefits legally. That means those who came in October can return today, but those who came in January should stick around through June. This could mean an opportunity for both our property owners, who are still on the market, and our potential buying prospect base, who are waiting for end-of-season deals!

Prediction #1: End of Season Deals There Will Be!

You can expect some serious discounting through the end of June as motivation sets in for our Sellers who are doing more than “testing the market.” Since January, there have already been 8,624 price reductions throughout Collier County, and 32 reductions have been posted as of 10:28 this morning (that’s no joke!) Just today, I noticed a villa in Vizcaya at Bay Colony was reduced by 13% to attract a post-season buyer! It used to be we would see these massive reductions all at once because an overwhelming majority of our part-timers all came and exited at the same time. Many Florida “Crackers” and longtimers reminisce about the days when Naples grew exponentially quiet in April, and many fear those days will be gone forever. Still, the drive down the gauntlet (Tamiami Trail) will grow easier and faster as we move closer to the warmer months of the year. You know who else knows that? Naples finest! Don’t fall victim to your lead foot.

Prediction #2: Some Owners Will Punt Off & Reappear Next Season

There’s a good time to exit the Naples real estate market at the end of the season with the intention of going back on the market at the beginning of next season, but a declining market is not one of them. An election year isn’t either. LOL! I’m seeing evidence of this happening, which could likely cause shadow inventory problems as early as October, creating even more downward pressure on prices. If you are considering dropping off the market and waiting until next season to re-enter it, do yourself a huge favor and talk with your agent about it before pulling the trigger. Call me if you’re already off the market and want to know if you made a mistake. I can help you determine your next best course of action.

Prediction #3: Losses Will Be More Identifiable and Frequent

About a year ago, I had a conversation with my absolute favorite and most respected appraiser. She shared one of her tricks for ascertaining whether a market was stabilizing or actually depreciating by comparing the same properties that traded within a short time for less. While we were on the phone, I mentioned this example of a home in Oakmont at Pelican Bay. That home sold for $3,490,000 in September 2021 and again in May 2023 but for $3,350,000. She said that was exactly what she sought, but one example does not make a market. A few other sales in the neighborhood have been showing a much better result since. Regardless, I take a peek at sales history almost daily to compare. Those losses are showing up more often, suggesting the market is taking a turn in some locations.

Prediction #4 Those Who Can Sell Will, Those Who Can’t Won’t

What a stupid headline, LOL! It’s true, though. The number of agents selling real estate in Naples who have never seen a downturn is massive. They do not know how to coach their clients effectively, and unfortunately, they’re going to coach or not coach them right into failure. There have already been 1,144 terminations (up 34%), 1,447 expired listings (up 36%), and 515 failed contracts so far this year. What’s a failed contract? An accepted offer where the buyer exercised their right to back out or forfeit their deposit to kill the deal. So many agents think the next buyer is right around the corner. Letting a buyer go right now can be a really dumb gamble in a slowing market, especially now that the season is over. Ask me how to avoid a failed contract!

How To Hire A Good Listing Agent

If you’re thinking about putting your Naples property on the market, the best favor you can do for yourself is to hire a good agent. An overwhelming majority of owners are, in a sense, lazy about hiring. Here are a few questions you can ask to help determine who is actually good at their job and who has been winging it for the last few years.

Tell me how you sold a “difficult to sell” listing.
If our listing loses steam, what can you offer to entice buyers to our property?
What properties are our most challenging competitors, and how will we compete?

Unsure about what a good answer sounds like? Call me!

Prediction #5: We’ll See More Gaming The System!

Here’s a short list of how agents and/or sellers try to game the system. As the market deteriorates, these tactics become less interesting. Here’s a list:

Absurdly small price reductions that don’t entice a buyer to act. Many inexperienced agents don’t realize this can hurt more than help. Ask me why.
Terminated to Active listings to attempt to rekindle interest. This tactic was much more compelling when Zilly wasn’t keeping score. LOL
Squatting, formerly known as open houses on absurdly priced properties where buyers no longer visit.

Sellers, make sure you’re asking about the results of these marketing efforts. It might be time to do something different if they aren’t working for you.

In Closing

I hope you enjoyed my 5 post-season predictions. Remember when I said there were 32 reductions today? Now there are 65 at 12:51. It’s like this content almost writes itself! In all actuality, it doesn’t, though. Call me to discuss your Naples real estate objective and how I can get you into your next great property or help you sell what you already own!

Best Regards,

Shannon Lefevre, PA
Your Naples Smart Girl!
239-595-6223

5 Post Season Predictions