Aqualane Shores Forecast For Season 2022-2023

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Aqualane Shores Forecast For Season 2022-2023

Hello Naples Friends,

I trust everybody is having a fabulous summer now that many of us have returned to our normal summer activities. I think the Naples market will return to a normal real estate market this next season, bringing good news for buyers far and wide. This month I’ll be covering my 2022-2023 Naples real estate forecasts for all of my favorite Naples neighborhoods. Today, I’ll go over where the Aqualane Shores market is, where it might be headed and what it means to you if you’re planning on buying or selling this year. Here’s my Aqualane Shores Forecast for Season 2022-2023.

Aqualane Shores Forecast For Season 2022-2023

In This Post:

• The One Big Talking Point

• Current Aqualane Shores inventory levels

• Projected inventory levels

• Comparison of past inventory reports

• New construction report

• What to expect

The One Big Talking Point

The topic of low inventory levels has been beaten to death over the past two years, but this year, it’s going to hit differently. Aqualane Shores’ inventory has been on the rise for several months, and it’s accelerating faster than many people have noticed. This will bring dramatic new talking points for buyers. Some sellers who expect similar market conditions compared to last season will be slightly disappointed when they see how the market has changed. Let’s look at the numbers.

Current Aqualane Shores Stats

Aqualane Shores Forecast
Aqualane Shores Forecast For Season 2022-2023

Current Inventory – 10.75 months

In my Inventory Report on June 21st, Aqualane Shores was sitting on just over seven months of inventory. Last November, there were less than two months of inventory. Today Aqualane is kissing eleven months. Selling traffic is at about a fraction compared to what it was last year. Let’s peek at the details:

May Closings

2021 – 8

2022 – 1

June Closings

2021 – 9

2022 – 2

July – Closings

2021 – 3

2022 – 0

What Happened To Aqualane Shore’s Activity?

As you can see, there were 20 sales in Aqualane Shores last year compared to just three sales this year. So, what’s the deal? Did the market just die? Many believe everybody is just back in their normal routine, and it will pick back up during preseason starting in October. You can almost see the confidence based on price reductions alone! Only one Aqualane Shores home has reduced its price since entering the market. They’ve reduced three times since they’ve been on the market, suggesting they would like to sell sooner than later. They’re down over $1,500,000 since June, yet they’re still on the market. 

Projected Inventory Levels

There’s only one listing that dropped off the market since April. Whether they will re-enter the market this upcoming season remains to be seen. If it continues to slide, we’ll see some sellers decide to go off the market. Motivation to sell here can wane when sellers don’t think they’re getting all their value for their properties, and the consolation prize is to continue to enjoy the home. Let’s face it, Aqualane Shores is not a bad place to spend the winters. 

We will see a fair amount of inventory hit the market this preseason which begins in October.  Those new listings might hit as early as the second week of September, but with so much on the market, some owners may wait until later in the season. Keep your eyes open for the first couple weeks in October and January 2023. Do it now if you haven’t signed up for my new listing notifications in Aqualane Shores.

Aqualane Shores New Construction

Aqualane Shores

Eight new homes are expected to drop sometime before next year’s end. Today those homes are priced as low as $12,950,000 up to $19,995,000. There’s also one vacant lot available that was likely purchased for a new spec. We see these hit the market as lot offerings when builders and investors get nervous about the market. Can you blame them? It takes about two years to build a home in Aqualane, and the forecast two years out doesn’t look great. 

This year is your chance to buy if you like new construction in Aqualane Shores. Speculative new construction in Aqualane Shores can disappear during a downturn forcing buyers to hire their own builder and build their own home. Many buyers don’t want to wait two years for a new home. 

What To Expect

Collier County has been appreciating since 2010! I recently reached out to all of my past buyers to say, “This is the year you want to sell if you’re thinking about doing it anytime within the next few years.” 100% of my past clients who responded asked, “What could I get for my property?” All but one was disappointed with their price even though I quoted crazy, unprecedented gains. Only one client remarked, “I didn’t think I could get more than (the price I quoted).” I guess there will be a big disconnect between buyers and sellers. 

If you’re buying, you will want to use my 5-point purchasing strategy to help you sell your offer.

The Most Likely Scenario

What is probably going to happen is there will be some sales where the buyer gets a much bigger discount during negotiations than other buyers expected. This makes other buyers so disappointed. “I would have bought it for that if I’d known they would have taken that price.” As an example, the best discount given two years ago was a 15% discount. This year it’s 23%! The average in Aqualane Shores today is still around 4%, the same as last year, but some sellers will deal if they’re not getting the interest they need to stay confident. Keep in mind that Aqualane Shores is a neighborhood of convenience. Some sellers won’t care if they’re leaving money on the table if it means they can make the property go away. This is the “go-to” alternative to documented price reductions and the preferred way of selling in an ultra-luxurious market like Aqualane Shores.

If The Market Tanks

If the market tanks and interest continues to be alarmingly thin, this season may bring new sellers who decide to get serious about selling. They may undercut what’s currently on the market. I’m already seeing this in other locations with lower price values. This may cause a shift in the value of the current listings. Sellers may reduce down to compete with new listings. Aqualane Shores isn’t fast moving on this strategy, so more time might pass before we get to this. For buyers, this can be fun to watch, but you may not want to sit on the sidelines for this. If you see sizable reductions, I mean the reduction that makes you say, “WHAT?!” Know you aren’t alone. Other buyers will be attracted to the same announcement this year, and you may miss it. 

Token Price Reduction

If the price reduction is a token amount, like a new price that almost makes you laugh (I’m seeing a lot of this, too,) don’t worry. I see this in every market I’ve researched, including Aspen, Vail, Chicago, New York, Boston, New Canaan, Palm Beach, Miami, and Dallas. These token price reductions are typical because the agent doesn’t know what they’re doing, or the seller isn’t very flexible. 

Players Only Love You When You’re Playing

Sellers don’t like buyers looking for “blood in the water.” Even if you are that guy, keep that energy away from the listing agent and seller. There are all sorts of ways of getting a really good price. The agents in the Aqualane Shores market are very savvy and have been around for a long time. Many of them will see your objective, which can hurt your negotiating power. Those agents will talk amongst themselves in extreme conditions, and you can acquire a nasty reputation throughout the neighborhood. This town is smaller than you think and everybody likes to talk. In my experience, buyers who expose their opportunistic behavior tend to believe they can handle the shunning; ultimately, more opportunistic buyers end up exiting the market out of sheer embarrassment.

Curious about what you can accomplish? Call me. I’ll shoot straight and let you know if your goals are accomplishable. If they aren’t today, they might be soon!
If you’re the buyer who likes to buy with their head, I have an entire strategy to help you cut your best deal. 

I hope you enjoyed my Aqualane Shores Forecast For Season 2022-2023. If you have any questions or if I can assist you further, please shoot me a text, call, or email.

Best Regards,

Shannon Lefevre, PA

Your Naples Smart Girl


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