Naples Real Estate Inventory Report 1.1.19

Happy New Year Naples Friends!

Today I’m going over the Naples real estate inventory in all of my favorite Naples neighborhoods. Here’s what I’ll cover:

Current Naples real estate inventory
Past Naples real estate inventory
Inventory projection results reported last August
What you can expect this season

Some of you may remember my post about my Naples real estate long-range forecast I wrote last August. Today I have a HUGE update. Let’s get started.

EDIT: Click this link for the most recent Naples real estate inventory report.

AQUALANE SHORES

Current – 13 months
Projected last August – 15 months
Last May report – 20 months

There were 16 properties that entered the Aqualane Shores market and punted out sometime since last April. Of those 16 properties:

5 are back on the market.
3 went back on and are either currently pending or sold.
8 are still off the market.

Now that the holidays are nearly officially over we could see those re-enter the market as early as now. This could easily push inventories to the 15-month supply I projected. Aqualane Shores is a wee bit oversupplied. Buyers have some nice leverage. If traffic and buying activity is slow through mid-March, you could expect some discounting this season.

Sellers: You have competition. Be fair and prepared to accommodate property condition issues during the contract process. Watch your pricing should your neighbors decided to get aggressive throughout the season. Hire a marketing rock star who knows how to crush online marketing. Call me for details.

Buyers: You have competition as well. While you should see some accommodation at the negotiating table it’s not likely going to be in the form of huge reductions. The average list price to sales price ratio in Aqualane Shores is 95%. List prices are down enough to produce a few more sales compared to last year. If you want the best purchasing strategy, call me directly.

Audubon

Current – 13 months
Projected last August – 13 months
Last May report – 15 months

Hey, I nailed my projection for Audubon but I think we’re going to see some more hit the market in January. Audubon saw enormous success over the past year clearing out a ton of oversupply. There are 4 pending contracts right now. The success is continuing along. There’s a pretty equal market now which means neither the buyer or the seller has an upper hand. This should call for a pretty level playing field at the negotiating table. It’s great when everybody gets along.

Sellers: Roughly 1/3 of the properties listed in Audubon have been on the market for over 200 days. If you want to avoid lengthy market times, call me for a strategic marketing plan that will help you get your best price.

Buyers: We’re seeing some investor driven remodels here that could take the pain out of having to endure a full renovation. Keep in mind great renovators want to be compensated for their hard work and expenses. If you don’t feel like doing this and want to snatch something up for a discount, there’s plenty to see. If you need a list of reputable tradesmen who can handle your work, call me. I can help you, either way, you decide to go.

Bay Colony

Current 12 months
Projected last August 12 months
No report last May

Hey, I nailed my projection for Bay Colony. There are still 8 properties that could re-enter the market sometime this season but the odds of seeing a mass influx of listings may not be so great. Many of the properties that went off the market have already re-entered.

We had some decent pre-season activity this year with 5 properties currently pending. This isn’t going to do much for buyers when it comes to negotiating points unless you want to talk about the highest end of the market. Estates at Bay Colony, Strand at Bay Colony and Windsor at Bay Colony are having a tough time which may mean it could be a PERFECT time for a buyer to see what they can do.

Buyers: With interest on the beach hitting the downtown area this year, it’s likely we’re going to see some movement in The Strand. The first buyer is probably going to do the best. Call me sooner than later if you’re ready to get started.

If you can’t find a renovated home or condo and the idea of remodeling turns your stomach, call me. I have a full team who will rock that project out for you and that could end up being way easier than waiting for something remodeled to hit the market. You’re going to want to do this sooner than later if you want to be in your fabulously remodeled place by next season. Contractors book up and permitting takes time.

Sellers: It should be a pretty good year for you but it’s not the year to go crazy on prices like some of your neighbors. Buyers aren’t responding well to undocumented prices and are opting to go outside of Bay Colony to hit their buying goals if they feel like prices are too high. I have a few tricks up my sleeve that helped me sell every listing I’ve taken this year (except for those currently on the market). Call me.

Collier’s Reserve

Current – 7 months
Projected last August – 7 months
Last May report – 12 months

Collier’s Reserve saw amazing success this year burning through a huge amount of oversupply. The recently rebuilt boathouse and completed fitness center, dog park and pickleball courts are a big part of the attraction. Talking about attraction, if you are an “attention to every detail” kind of person and you haven’t seen this amazing new listing in Collier’s Reserve, you are missing out on an incredibly maintained design masterpiece priced at only $1,690,000.

Buyers: There are only 3 properties that haven’t re-entered the Collier’s Reserve market this year and you can expect at least one of those to hit very soon. That’s not going to help buyers with an inventory talking point this year but that doesn’t mean owners are going to be hyper-rigid when being approached at the negotiating table. Call me and let’s see what we can do for you.

Sellers: If you want to know what you can do to maximize your bottom line or just curious about what I think I can get for your home, call me. I saw success in Collier’s Reserve this year when a huge group of people said I wouldn’t. I’m ready to do it again.

Grey Oaks

Current – 10 months
Projected last August– 8 months
Last May report – 6 months

Grey Oaks inventory levels look like they could increase a couple of months from here this season. This doesn’t seem to be concerning the 7 buyers currently under contract. The top side of the market saw some movement this year but there’s still a 2 year supply of properties listed north of five million. This could be great leverage for our upper ended buyers.

Nearly half of the listings in Grey Oaks have been on the market for over 200 days. Only 25% of the market has reduced prices down from their original list. There are even a few who increased their price. This is normal for a market that doesn’t really know what’s going on. It might be a little difficult to get deals together here with some sellers who think the market is hotter than it really is. I sniff a chill in the air.

Buyers: Cautiously approach the negotiating table as you may be more excited to haggle than the seller. Of course, there are ways of determining if a seller is willing to accommodate you and if you don’t know how to uncover the signs, I do. Call me.

Sellers: There’s plenty of data out there to help you see what your property is worth. In some of the older homes, property condition is coming in to play. Call me to see how to get your highest bottom line and how I can attract the largest prospect base.

Mediterra

Current – 12 months
Projected last August– 12 months
Last May report – 14 months

I nailed this projection for Mediterra but there’s a shadow inventory that hasn’t re-entered the market yet. Mediterra is one of those neighborhoods that tend to see an oversupply at times and while everything seems nice and stable right now, that probably won’t hold through the season.

Mediterra just remodeled their clubhouse which is gorgeous but there’s also anywhere between 12-18 months of a hold on full golf memberships. If you’re purchasing a home that doesn’t have full golf membership attached are you prepared to wait that long? 23 or over 1/3 of the Mediterra properties have a total market time of over 1 year. That tells me there’s a pretty fair amount of sellers who want more than buyers are willing to pay.

Buyers: Yes, I think you have terrific opportunities this year and a solid buying program is probably going to do amazing things for you. Call me and I will hook you up.

Sellers: You have a good group of agents who are crushing some of the best marketing strategies and doing a really good job in many aspects. If you want to crush them all, call me.

Moorings

Current – 9
Projected last August – 7
Last May report – 5

Moorings didn’t perform as well as I expected but with 16 currently under contract right now, they had some nice activity this pre-season. New and remodeled stuff seems to be doing better than old tired stuff. Beachfront properties are in demand as well. Still, people aren’t paying just anything to get on the sand or the water. Tired looking stuff is definitely a challenge and builder/developer interest for teardowns has wained.

I think we’re going to see a bit of a slow down on the single-family home front if sellers don’t respond to the pushback on pricing. Those who are pricing well are selling relatively quickly. Those who aren’t are sitting.

Buyers: If you’re finding the Moorings area alluring, you’ll do a great job by working with an agent who is familiar with different intricacies inherent in Moorings. There will be good buying strategies for different products but you’ll want your agent to help you with your approach. How you buy a beachfront condo or a new home will be different than how you buy something that needs to be gutted or torn down.

Sellers: It looks like many of your neighbors are a little more overzealous than they should be. Don’t fall into the trap of listing your home based on what’s currently on the market only or you could find yourself sitting instead of selling. If you’re thinking about selling, ask me how I avoid long market times. My average days on market in 2018 is less than 60 days and in a depreciating market, time is money!

Naples Cay

Current – 12 months
Projected last August – 10 months
Last May report – 15 months

Naples Cay saw some really great success over the past year. Based on market time, I think some of the current offerings are a little unrealistic with their pricing. This high pricing is responsible for the higher inventory today and could likely be the cause of up to an 18-month supply of inventory unless sellers respond soon. This will give buyers good talking points to negotiate this season and may lead to some March and April discounts.

Buyers: If you’re looking for something updated, there are some really great units for sale. Not everything is overpriced here and some of these are definitely worth a peek. If you’re a high-end buyer, my favorite high-end unit is on the market here.

Sellers: I’m seeing the same tired marketing strategies in Naples Cay but your competing markets are using new techniques to attract buyers. Sure, the price and condition of your unit is important but so is attracting ready, willing and able buyers to Naples Cay. If you want to sell this season and collect all your money, call me.

Old Naples

Current – 13 months
Projected last August – 12 months
Last May report – 12 months

Old Naples rang in the New Year with a whopping 19 pending properties but the chill of winter is going to sink in a little bit with increasing inventories. Sellers are going to do better if they respond well to current market demands. If your agent is suggesting a price reduction due to lack of action, I’d listen. Property condition is going to come in play as it always does once the market shifts to an oversupplied position.

Buyers: This is going to be a location to watch this year and I think there could be some deals if you or your agent stay alert. There are 2 years of inventory in new homes and 31 new condos on the market right now. You have amazing choices. I think the best deals are going to be found in homes that need to be remodeled. I’ve seen lots of price reductions in this portion of the market during the pre-season which is going to make it easier for you to find out who wants to sell this year.

Sellers: This is a complex market doing complex things. It’s important to understand what you have to offer and what is going on with the comps that pertain to what you’re putting on the market. Sellers are behaving aggressively right now. You want to be in a good position with an agent who has all of the tools to attract eyeballs to your property. Call me. I have some proven results that will bring the buyer to your door.

Park Shore

Current – 8 months
Projected last August – 8 months
Last May report – 9 months

Park Shore is technically in an undersupplied situation and even with the number of homes and condos that could potentially re-enter the market this year, it isn’t going to be enough to bring current levels to a stable scenario unless buying activity goes way down. What it could do is slow the amount of appreciation though which will be welcome news for buyers.

There are currently 27 homes and condos in the Park Shore area pending. Let’s face it, the beach never gets old. Still, the beachfront market is considerably more stable than it has been in years with nearly 12 months of inventory available. There are 10 beachfront units under contract right now which tells me buyers are pulling the trigger and responding well to a properly priced product.

Buyers: If you’re thinking about purchasing in Park Shore this year, you’re not alone. There is a good selection of entry-level Park Shore properties but finished new construction is light this year which is going to make bargaining a challenge.

If you’re buying on the beach you should be better accommodated this year this is likely due to the fact that you’re probably going to have to do some remodeling. I have amazing contacts if you need to go that direction. Call me.

Sellers: It’s time to hire a marketing master. I see lots of your neighbors depending on tired agents with tired results. Don’t fall victim to a lack of marketing creativity.

Pelican Bay

Current – 7 months
Projected last August– 5 months
Last May report – 6 months

Pelican Bay rang in the New Year with 34 pending listings! Future inventory levels look like they may go a bit higher but stable inventories are nowhere in the immediate line of site. Looking through the activity through the year there were mass amounts of listings that went off the market for one reason or another only to hit the market again and sell. That doesn’t mean there aren’t pockets of opportunity. This incredibly priced entry-level high rise unit in Pelican Bay is a ridiculous deal! Entry level into Pelican Bay starts at $410,000 right now. While there was one documented listing in the 2’s this year, there was more than a handful of sales in the 3’s. The strongest I ever saw it was at the peak of the market during the last trend when entry-level pricing was at $535,000.

Buyers: I’d buy sooner than later if at all possible. Prices are going up dramatically and your selection is already pretty slim in many areas. That won’t give you a mass amount of talking points but it could prevent you from paying higher prices later in the season.

If you’re considering renovating, I have some incredible contractors that can take care of your renovations. You’ll want to have your permitting done soon though. It’s taking up to 6 weeks right now and could increase if buying traffic continues to increase. Many contractors book up quickly so if the goal is to be in your new place by next season, chop chop!

Sellers: The market has picked up again in several areas! If you’re thinking about selling, you’re going to want a selling strategy that capitalizes on all of the latest and greatest marketing tools. Many sellers aren’t reaping the benefits of all effective tools available. If you don’t know what they are, call me. You will be astounded at what can be done!

Pelican Marsh

Current – 7 months
Projected – 10 months
May report – 10 months

Pelican Marsh is sitting with an interesting amount of shadow inventory that may have gone off the market for the holidays and could re-enter soon especially if there’s a flurry of buying traffic. This could push levels to a stable position sometime this season. There are only 9 properties pending which is slightly under 2018 performance. Pelican Marsh sees more traffic than other neighborhoods during the summer so this doesn’t concern me as much.

The middle of the road isn’t doing well here with lots of competition. This is going to work out well for buyers who have lots of choices and want a deal.

Buyers: You have some great choices this year at some great prices even with the lower inventory. This is a great location to pick up a deal if you’re into doing some remodeling.

Sellers: There has been some remodeling activity in Pelican Marsh which is going to make it difficult for those who haven’t. Much like new construction putting a damper on pre-existing sales, remodeled homes and condos put a damper on units in original condition. There are ways to fight back but you have to call for the plan.

Pine Ridge

Current – 8 months
Projected last August – 14 months
Last May report – 12 months

Pine Ridge saw some amazing success this year. New construction has a lot to do with the action considering people are snatching up the newly constructed homes and builders/investors are snatching up teardowns at the same time. There are 7 new homes available in Pine Ridge right now. People gravitate to that shiny new home feel. Based off what I see on the lower end of the market, I think new construction is going to continue to be strong.

I see some shadow inventory that could push inventory levels up this year but I don’t think it’s going to be enough to reach stable levels of inventory.

Buyers: If you like a home with a little elbow room, Pine Ridge is a GREAT consideration. I think purchasing sooner than later is going to be the best option when it comes to appreciation. This is not the year you want to try to wait for the end of the season deals unless you’re wanting to purchase something that needs remodeling.

Sellers: If you have a potential tear down opportunity located in a good area, get on the market. There’s a need and you should be able to do well on your price. Homes that need a little TLC but are not teardowns are a little tougher sell so property condition is going to come into play. Call me if you’re looking for an agent who can market to the exact prospect base interested in properties like yours.

Port Royal

Current – 14 months
Projected – 18 months
May report – 18 months

Port Royal is currently just a hair over stable levels today but still has a chance of increasing to nearly 18 months of inventory sometime this season. Completed new construction options are down considerably this year which means buyers need to get in there and get it done early or risk losing their chances of using their new property anytime this season.

The historical $48,800,000 beachfront sale that occurred last June caused speculation on the beach to be more favorable this year. Another beachfront home just went under contract in December. I won’t be surprised when more properties of this magnitude sell.

Buyers: If you’re thinking beachfront, now is the time to do it. Many of your counterparts will be hoping to wait for after season discounting. I don’t think this is the wisest way to go this year.

Sellers: The average market time in Port Royal is 241 days. If your intention is to sell this season, you’re going to want to go with an agent who knows how to shorten the days for success so you can move on.

Quail West

Current – 13 months
Projected – 15 months
May report – 15 months

Quail West is another one of those locations that seem to take the brunt of a slowing market with an influx of inventory. There’s still an additional 2 months of inventory in the shadow market here which is better than I’ve seen in the past. I see some weird occurrences of price increases I haven’t seen in other markets. This makes no sense considering current market conditions. I see some price decreases too though so that will make it easier for buyers to see who wants to sell and who doesn’t.

Buyers still aren’t responding well to many of the current values here which means there could continue to be a shakeup. Over the course of the past year, the average list price for those properties that sold was $515. Today average active listings are at $499. Pending is at $426. At least we can see the market.

Buyers: It’s a stable market right now which means you have some talking points and you should have to stall too much to get a good value. There’s no harm in trying to accomplish that now especially if you’re planning renovation projects. You’ll have plenty of time to get the work done and clean up before summer. Call me if you would like a great buying strategy.

Sellers: Today is NOT the day to increase your price regardless of what your neighbors are doing. If you want to know the true value of your property and want to capture the most possible, call me.

Talis Park

Current 11 months
Projected 12 months
May report 15 months

Talis Park has so many “looks and feels like” new homes on the market here, no wonder they’re outperforming my projections. Talis Park ran into a bit of a slowdown last year but they seem to be doing better now. How about this…market time has dropped nearly 50% since last year! What I love most about this market is the fact there are fabulous options and inventories are level so all parties should get along great at the negotiating table. Talis Park residents were quick to respond to market conditions by dropping prices and giving some discounts during negotiations. Those are perfect ingredients to a lagging market and they are doing well with it.

Because Talis Park is doing well, entry into the neighborhood has increased over 200k which means buyers won’t have as much muscle negotiating this year. Sellers aren’t in a position to take full advantage either so rest easy.

Buyers: If I were you I’d buy now compared to later in the season. If inventories continue to drop at the same rate, you could find prices moving the other way.

Sellers: You have some successful talking points but you’re still competing with a new or near new product. Find out how to best combat advertising alongside a developer.

Tiburon

Current – 8 months
Projected last August– 13 months
Last May report – 12 months

How did Tiburon have such a stellar year? Did they price slash their properties? Take huge discounts at the closing table? Offer elaborate promotions to entice unsuspecting buyers? Nope! Owners stayed on the market and took advantage of a busy summer. In fact, they sold more properties in June, July and August than they did in January, February and March. This totally blows the old adage that properties in Naples only sell during the season. Of course, it didn’t hurt Tiburon to host the QBE PGA tournament in December. Because of this activity, Tiburon was able to keep price levels at almost the exact amount as the year before. Perhaps some of our other luxury locations could take a page out of Tiburon’s book.

Even with the success, there’s plenty of entry-level and mid-level purchasing opportunities. If you’re looking for the highest-end properties, there aren’t any available right now. If you want me to keep an eye out for you let me know or just head over to Escada at Tiburon and sign up for a new property notification.

Buyers: You have some great choices for nearly everything but the average discount in Tiburon is only about 7%. There won’t be huge discounts this year but hey, you’ll have access to an amazing golf club.

Sellers: Those before you did the heavy lifting and you are sitting in a healthy market because of it. If you want to ensure your selling success this season, call me for my juicy marketing plan.

Vanderbilt Beach

Current – 11 months
Projected last August – 11 months
Last May report – 10 months

Vanderbilt Beach has a pretty decent level of Pelicans. I’m not talking about the birds your find along the shores of Vanderbilt Beach. I’m talking about those buyers who glide over the top of the market waiting to see something they like and then swoop down to pick up a terrific unit at a good value. Half of the pending properties sold within the first 15 days of listing the same way 27 properties in Vanderbilt Beach sold last year. That tells me buyers aren’t feeling good about the 4% increase in list price but they will bite fast if the property is priced right.

There is something for any kind of buyer on the market here right now and because inventories are nearing stable levels, buyers should be fairly accommodated. Average list to sell ratio is right at about 6% which is very normal for a healthy market.

Buyers: If you see a deal or an exceptional property at a realistic price, you better be ready to strike or it will be gone. Increase your chances by signing up for my new property notification or call me direct and I’ll stay on the hunt for you. Don’t be surprised if that great unit that’s overpriced drops to acceptable levels as some sellers will likely get more realistic this year.

Sellers: If you’re ready to list right, be ready to sell. These buyers aren’t waiting around right now and will accommodate a smartly priced option. Need to know what that number is? Call me today!

On A Closing Note

Thank you for reading my posts, forwarding my content to your friends, sending me your questions and comments and supporting me with your business. I had an amazing 2018 serving both new and past clients. I ventured heavier into the listing side of the business and saw outstanding success. I launched Shannon.com and because of you, I am starting to rank as well as I did with my old one. Launching the site was a long trying project and without your support, I would’ve never been able to make it through. I am SO grateful. I’m excited to continue to add content and features to the site and continue to provide exceptional service to those who will be gracious enough to hire me.

Please contact me at your earliest convenience so I can save the time you deserve on my calendar.

Happy New Year!

Shannon Lefevre, PA
Your Naples Smart Girl!