Naples Real Estate Inventory Report 1.15.24

Naples Real Estate Inventory Report 1.15.24

Happy New Year, Naples Friends! Today, I’m covering real estate inventories in most of my favorite Naples developments. I’ve been running a weekly inventory report since October to provide critical intelligence on how each market has moved to help you determine if now is a good time to sell or hold. Additionally, if you’re considering a purchase, you’ll want to know how to negotiate your best deal! After watching the market for the past 20+ years, one thing is sure: not all developments peak and valley simultaneously, nor should you consider launching buying and selling strategies the same way from one market to another. Choosing a local, experienced agent increases your chances of accomplishing your objective. Let’s get started!

Audubon

Audubon real estate has held an undersupply of inventory, hovering around the 5-month supply since I’ve been tallying levels except for a two-week timeframe at the end of October and the beginning of November, where levels reached six months. Pending listings resulted in inventory dropping back down to the current status of 5 months. The number of sales for the past 12 months has remained nearly the same. This community has done an exceptional job adding to its amenity portfolio a community lifestyle center with a new pool, fitness center, pickleball, tennis pro shop, and more. They are also doing a tremendous job keeping entry and annual fees down compared to competing neighborhoods.

I’ve already seen company emails where buyers’s agents are asking for pocket listings due to the shortage of availability. If you’re thinking about selling, call me! We may have already identified your buyer!

Buyers, there is a FABULOUS remodeled home here that dropped their price 8% today. In my opinion, it is a tremendous deal!

Aqualane Shores

Aqualane Shores has been tracking the highest inventory levels of the 28 areas I have followed since the beginning of October. Eighteen months of inventory quickly increased to 24 months in November and has increased to 35 months. Closed sales for the rolling 12-month period decreased slightly. Aqualane has had a history of high inventories transitioning off-peak market conditions but has consistently recovered historically. There is currently a wide variety of price adjustments in both directions throughout the current availability, and despite being the inventory record holder, it is still attracting some of Naples’s most affluent prospects.

Many buyers identify an amazing property and then make the mistake of waiting for a price reduction when areas have an oversupply of inventory, and there aren’t many properties going under contract. Hesitation leads to the most significant disappointment because it takes little for a market to reignite. Do not get left on the sidelines without the opportunity to capture the property you want most. Call me today to find out the best way to capture your favorite listing and still negotiate a great discount!

Bay Colony

I started tracking Bay Colony at the end of October, mainly because so little was happening. Pre-season started with just over nine months of inventory, which increased over 19 months by the time January rolled in. Evidence of the first pending sale since tracking occurred on December 11, breaking the sales activity dry spell since September. Despite the respite of sales success, the 12- month rolling average for sales remains unchanged. There are some disturbing statistics in Bay Colony today. There are seven years of inventory in Bay Colony Shores, even with prices coming down, suggesting they have yet to find the market. Biltmore is offering six years of inventory today, but there haven’t been any buyers who are ultra excited to purchase at $2,000+/foot AND pay $40,000 plus in annual fees.

Collier’s Reserve

Much like Audubon, Collier’s Reserve is holding on to its undersupplied status starting in October with less than three months of inventory and only increasing to three months today. Additionally, they have managed to slightly increase the number of sales during the past 12 months. Unlike other competing golf course communities where membership availability is several years out, popularity in Collier’s Reserve could stem from immediately available golf opportunities. If you like the idea of remodeling, there are some opportunities for you to check out!

Coquina Sands

Coquina Sands started with nine months of inventory in October but has increased to 11 months today. A big win helping Coquina Sands inventories remain stable includes the six pending sales in Rosewood Residences and the 16 million dollar sale of Ocean Terrace. Additionally, Coquina has had a 30% increase in closed sales for the rolling 12-month period. You can expect a few more new developments in the near future, which will undoubtedly inject a new, vibrant character to this beachside locale.

Grey Oaks

Starting with just over three months of inventory in October and doubling to just over six months today still marks a grave undersupply of inventory in this popular golf community. Even with an end-of-year push for new closings, Grey Oaks has slipped slightly with the number of closed sales for the past 12 months. I think it’s curious enough to add that there are only four pending sales today. That’s the lowest amount I have seen since tracking. Now is a good time to identify who wants to sell! One buyer negotiated a 19% discount here this past year. That was a $435,000 savings!

Kalea Bay

Kalea Bay started with five available listings in October and is down to three available condos today. They have just done an extraordinary job over there. That $50,000 transfer fee feels a little excessive, though.

Mediterra

Inventories in Mediterra started at just under six months. Today, the tally includes just over eight months of active listings, while the 12-month average of closed sales remains steady. Mediterra was the first location where I witnessed the first hint of price wars over a year ago. There’s faint evidence of this in Calabria. Did you see the nearly twenty million dollar listing that hit in Il Cuore? Sitting on nearly two acres, it’s worth checking out!

Moorings

Starting with five months of inventory in October and doubling to over ten months by the end of the year, Moorings remains in a state of undersupply for at least the immediate duration. A notable success includes the sales of nearly all La Perle condos. There’s trouble brewing with the single-family side of the market. Many homes have been sitting on the market for a while. The average days on the market for active homes is now 213 days. The 12-month closed sales average is only 94 days. That’s a dramatic increase. One lucky buyer negotiated a whopping 26% discount at the closing table while the neighborhood average remains at just under 8%. As more new homes are near completion, this may cause a glut of new inventory, creating some interesting negotiating points!

Naples Cay

Naples Cay is struggling to wake up from its traditional summer slumber, with only four active listings currently available. Despite the lack of activity, the number of closed sales for the 12-month rolling average remains the same as it was in October.

Olde Naples

Starting with 5.8 months of inventory in October and expanding to nearly ten months starting in January, Olde Naples is starting to feel a slowdown. Only 20 sales were recorded in Olde Naples from October 1, 2023, until December 31, 2023. There were 24 during the same time in 2022, but remember, we had just experienced a category-five hurricane a few months before! Additionally, a 15 million dollar sale closed during that time in 2022, while the largest sale this past pre-season was half that. Closed sales volume is down just over 3%, which isn’t enough to cause grave alarm and produce the willingness to discount without regard. The average discount is just over 6%, with one lucky buyer negotiating nearly 17% off the full list price.

Park Shore

Pre-season levels began with just over seven months of active inventory and increased to nearly ten months before settling to 9.67 months this week, which is still considered an undersupplied level. Park Shore homes are going through similar pains as Moorings as more and more new construction hits the market. There is now a slight oversupply of inventory, and I suspect it may continue to grow. This will be great news as negotiations become more fun for buyers! The 12-month closed sale rolling average decreased nearly 7%, which will help fuel a more negotiable seller. Now that the beachfront is coming along substantially better than this time last year, condos are having a better time than before. While some buyers are still a little nervous about purchasing on the sand, I expect some of those reservations to fade as the beautification continues and Ian becomes a faint memory.

Pelican Bay

Pelican Bay was sitting on less than five months of inventory in October. Levels increased to more than seven months this week. Pelican Bay would see severe trouble if it weren’t for the success of the villa and condo markets. No single-family home has entered a contract on the open market since July 21st. Want to know why? Call me directly!

Some good news includes the passing of the new racquet facility to include three more tennis courts and ten pickleball courts to be completed in 2024!

Pelican Marsh

Pelican Marsh inventories remain alarmingly low, with less than three months of active inventory. It is currently one of the most successful selling developments I’m following. The 12-month rolling sales average remains virtually the same. What’s causing this success? Owners have remained extremely level-headed regarding the value of their properties. As a result, you can get great value here, along with a pretty nice set of amenities!

Pine Ridge

Pine Ridge began to see trouble with inventories by the end of December when levels increased from a state of stability to oversupplied with 15 months of availability. This area has also seen a dramatic decrease in its rolling average of closed sales. In October, that number was 34; today, it is only 21. Just this week, the most expensive home to hit the market in the entire history of Pine Ridge went live. Besides having an acre-sized lake view lot, this home offers over 10,000 square feet. Can they get that price? We’ll have to wait and find out!

Port Royal

Pre-season in Port Royal started with 26 listings or an oversupply of inventory of 14 months. Port Royal’s real estate health grew progressively bleak as weeks and months passed without any sign of sales success while inventories grew past thirty-one months. Then, in traditional Port Royal character, two tiny $30,000,000 plus listings went magically under contract, which will undoubtedly stir additional interest. The rolling average of closed sales for the past 12 months dropped from 22 to 15. One thing is certain: wealthy people who dislike being cold will pay for quality and location. This year, they’ll have plenty of possibilities to choose from.

Quail West

Quail West is doing an excellent job of staying the course like most golf course communities this year. Inventories started at less than four months, peaked in the 5-month range for a couple of weeks in November, and dropped back down in the 4-month vicinity through the holidays and into the first part of the year. The 12-month rolling sales average has remained unchanged since October. Have you had an opportunity to check out the legacy property that started at nearly $16,000,000? It’s available today for $12,995,000. Check it out!

Royal Harbor

Royal Harbor began pre-season with a 9-month inventory or under-supplied status but accelerated to an over-supplied state by the third week of November. Currently sitting at 17 months of inventory, there may be more pressure as the amount of closed sales for the past 12 months dropped from 21 to 17.

Talis Park

Beginning with less than five months of inventory, Talis Park also saw a flurry of new listings, increasing inventories ever so slightly, but shortly after, pending sales resulted in keeping levels at less than six months, with the 12-month sales average actually increasing slightly. Bravo, Talis Park! If you’re interested in Talis Park, there are seven open houses this Sunday. You can check out all of the Talis Park open houses here or see them in person on Sunday.

The Dunes

The Dunes started pre-season 20 3 in a state of undersupply of nine months. This changed abruptly in mid-November when inventories increased over 12 months and increased to 14 months by the end of the year. Levels dropped back to 13 months to kick off the peak selling season.

Tiburon

Tiburon is performing exceptionally well, with less than three months of inventory and a slight increase in the number of closed sales during the past 12 months. In fact, I don’t remember a time when the Tiburon real estate market performed better. Escada has seen some curious reductions on the two homes for sale there. Comparatively, you can get more for your money in Tiburon than you can in other golf course communities. If you don’t mind sharing your golf course with a hotel, it might be worth looking at today’s offerings.

Twi Eagles

Inventory levels in Twin Eagles started under five months, grew to nearly seven months, and leveled back out to five months again to kick off the beginning of peak season while the 12-month sales average grew 8%.

Vanderbilt Beach

Vanderbilt Beach has made extraordinary improvements compared to its shape just one year ago. Despite that fact, pre-season began with an oversupply of 13 months of inventory. Increases were consistent into 2024 and now sit at over 18 months. There’s good news on the sales volume, however, with a 10% increase compared to where it was in October. The first new homes due to Ian are already hitting the market and appear to be pretty amazing. If you haven’t seen what’s available, it’s worth a peek. Additionally, there are a few really nice condo offerings as well. Check them out while you’re here!

Where Is the Naples Real Estate Market Headed?

According to valuable insight I received from a reliable source, we will see some decision-making affect the market in a highly positive way, which makes me concerned for our buyers today. If what I’m hearing is true, buyers have a very limited window of opportunity before the market heats up again, with volatility increasing past levels experienced during the peak of the Covid real estate trend. If I were in the market today, I would be making my selections now and beginning negotiations. Contact me directly if you want more insight about what I have heard.

Best Regards,

Shannon Lefevre, PA
Your Naples Smart Girl!
239-595-6223