Old Naples Naples, Florida Real Estate Forecast 2019-2020
In the ninth edition of my series, The 2019-2020 Naples Real Estate Forecast, I’ll be talking about the Old Naples, Florida real estate forecast for 2019-2020 and what it means to you if you’re thinking about buying or selling Old Naples real estate this year.
Big changes are ahead for Old Naples which has been riding the golden wave of appreciation for the past several years. This past year garnered better results than the year before. The winds have shifted though and with inventory levels expected to align with demand, that means some price relief for this year’s Old Naples buyer.
During the past year, buyers asked, “Where do I sign” despite the 14% increase in list prices compared to what closed the year before but they were a little less excited to do it displayed most clearly with the 25% hike in market time. Even with the bump in price, the average list to sell ratio held tight at 93%, unchanged from the year before.
In This Post
• Current Old Naples inventory levels
• Projected inventory levels
• Comparison of last year’s inventory report
• Old Naples New Construction Update
• What sellers can expect
• What buyers can expect
Old Naples Inventory Levels
- Current – 7 months
- Projected – 12 months
- Last August Report – 8 months
A cool breeze is coming in from the North and I’m not talking about the weather. Currently, there are a whopping 28 pending properties in Old Naples and while that’s impressive for September, it may also suggest buyers were more enthusiastic about after season deals to avoid tight high-season negotiations.
Here’s the real eye-opener…average list per foot on those pending properties is $729 while the average active is $989. Another eyebrow-raiser is the fact that 9 of those 28 properties sold in less than 30 days of market time which means the “hover effect” is in full force.
The Hover Effect
The hover effect is the term I use to describe buyers who want to own property in a particular location but wait to get the deal they want. These are the buyers who may have been attracted by their heart but negotiate with their head. They are the ones who sign up for new property notifications on all of their favorite neighborhoods. They learn the market and then attack when a handsomely priced property hits the market at a good price. I have several in the wings who use Shannon.com as their resource and if you are planning on buying the same way, you should register for Old Naples property notifications too.
People have already reached out to me directly and said, “This is what I’m looking for, keep your eyes out.” and those calls are increasing based on the number of emails I’m getting from colleagues titled, “I have a buyer looking for a deal.” You, and everybody else, sweetheart.
Old Naples New Construction
Old Naples buyers had a good time purchasing Old Naples new construction this past year. The introduction of some new condo product helped Old Naples more than double the number of new construction sales during the past year compared to the year before. This season will be remarkably different considering we’re rolling into this season with 9 months of new construction inventory compared to nearly 2 years of inventory last year.
Old Naples New Construction Stats
- Sold Price per foot up 17% compared to what sold the year before.
- Active list price per foot down 13% compared to what sold during the past year.
- Active list price per foot DOWN 27% compared to what sold during the past year.
- Inventories are approaching 14 months in this segment.
Seems our Old Naples builders/investors aren’t particularly enjoying that average total market time of 308 days for condos or 324 days for homes and are vying for attention!
It could also be they recognize we are 2 months and less than 2 weeks from another election year. Based off the chaos that brewed during the last election, this could mean buying opportunities if these sellers grow more skittish.
It could also mean new construction is going to be harder to come by later on down the road as investors choose to sit out more during weaker markets.
Last Year’s Old Naples Predictions Became Reality
I suggested around this time last year colder than normal weather was expected up north and we would see more buying traffic. Old Naples sales volume was up 5% over the year before…tada! This year, the 2020 edition of the Farmers’ Almanac predicts that two-thirds of the country will face a colder-than-normal winter season.
Will this garbage weather prediction be enough to motivate Old Naples buyers off their cold couches in the frozen tundra this year or are economic woes and political uncertainty going to win this war? I say, “life’s better at the beach” and you should follow in the footsteps of David and Jerrilyn Hoffmann and invest in Old Naples!
Selling in Old Naples?
If you caught my post last year, you’ll remember when I said, “this is not the year to be boisterous with undocumented offering prices.” Well, neither is this year. Inventory could easily slip into an oversupplied state if the 66 properties in Old Naples that punted out of the market re-enter. If you are only mildly interested in selling your Old Naples home or condo and would have no trouble holding onto it for a few years, you might choose to sit this one out. It will prevent some of the low-ball anxiety you might endure and surely shield you from election year disfunction.
If your goal is to sell your Old Naples real estate this year, then it’s time to choose an agent with their sleeves rolled up and ready for business. If more business rock stars are going to spend more time manning the ship up north this year in order to keep business booming, they’re going to spend less time in Naples prowling the streets. This means those open houses are going to be less traveled and digital exposure is going to be king when it comes to driving eyeballs to your properties.
This is when my digital marketing exposure really makes a profound difference because let’s face it, not every agent can get buying traffic to a property and it’s clearly showing in Old Naples right now.
Buying in Old Naples?
Hey there hotshot! First, let me congratulate you on the lower prices you’ll be looking at this year. Your “soon to be” new neighbors might be looking a little more envious at you knowing you got a WAY better deal than they did when they bought. Good things come to those who wait and here you are. Many of your buying competitors are going to be watching and waiting. Some have already started throwing worthless offers at unresponsive sellers. If you haven’t read my post about low-ball offers in Naples, do it!
You can get a true edge by hiring a badass negotiator and previewing properties.
I’ve lost track of the number of deals I’ve made where just a basic open dialog with listing agents ends up landing my client a ridiculously amazing deal. Why? Because some Naples luxury agents are tasked with only having the ability to attack the low hanging fruit. A ton of sellers every year refuse to drop their price but are very open to discounting at the closing table.
This will be a year when some buyers will whine about what properties sold for and proclaim they would’ve paid that had they known the seller was going to be that flexible but they will find out too late. One guy got a 29% discount on an Old Naples home this past year! List price was $4,680,000 sold price was $3,300,000. While this is out of the norm, it can and does happen but you typically have to show up first.
If you have time, see the property. Then you’ll have a perfect plan to choose which properties will work best and you can start that dialog with the seller. Call me for additional details on how to best attack your objective!
….but Shannon…you didn’t say anything about Old Naples beachfront properties! There aren’t any available on the open market right now but cheers to the happy buyer who purchased the last one with only 26 days on the market for $25,500,000! If you want beachfront, you better call me directly!
That’s what I have to say about Old Naples. I hope you’re enjoying my series on the Naples Real Estate Market Forecast for 2019-2020. If you’re thinking about selling your Old Naples property and want an aggressive agent with some massive marketing acumen, give me a shout. If you’re ready to buy, give me a jingle! I’ll show you all the greatest properties and help you slice up a great deal!
Shannon Lefevre, PA
Your Naples Smart Girl!
P.S. Have you subscribed to my site for important season announcements? You should do that! Don’t forget to sign up for new listings and price reduction alerts for Old Naples!