Bay Colony Naples Real Estate Forecast 2019-2020
In the third edition of my series, The 2019-2020 Naples Real Estate Forecast, I’ll be talking about the Bay Colony Naples, Florida real estate forecast for 2019-2020 today and what that means to you if you’re thinking about buying or selling Bay Colony real estate this year. During the last trend, Bay Colony was the last to feel the effects of the downturn and one of the first Naples communities to recover. Sure we saw an increased inventory with lower property values but there’s a real strength when an entire community can choose to punt off the market and wait for better returns. Here’s what I cover today:
In This Post:
- Current Bay Colony Naples inventory levels
- Projected inventory levels
- Comparison of last year’s inventory report
- What sellers can expect
- What buyers can expect
- Current 9 months
- Projected 12 months
- Last August 7 months
What happens when a Naples luxury market like Bay Colony starts to soften? At first, buyers wait for after season discounts like last year when 18 Bay Colony properties sold between May and August. When the market drops even more, buyers bypass the summer buying imposition because either they know they can get the pricing they want during the season or they don’t like the pricing and choose not to buy at all.
- Sales are down 34% between May and August compared to the same time last year.
- Sales volume is up 15% compared to last year.
Why? Because buyers bought during the season! There are zero pending properties in all of Bay Colony right now. It’s time for Bay Colony sellers to exit or get serious about their price. With 279 continuous days average market time…it’s a problem.
Bay Colony high-rise product is doing way better than Bay Colony homes with new construction, outdated properties and beachfront homes in Bay Colony creating the biggest drag on market time. Can a seller still get 1,600/foot in Bay Colony? One guy did on the beach but the other 7 owners are still waiting for their buyer.
Bay Colony Fast Facts
- Days on Market is up 68% compared to what sold this past year.
- Avg. list price to sales price ratio 93% unchanged from last year.
- Sales volume up 15%.
Selling in Bay Colony?
Many sellers took my advice I gave last year by staying on the market this summer and because of that inventories are projected to increase only 3 months compared to the 5-month jump last year. If Bay Colony goes much past a 12 month supply, it’s going to choke values downward so pricing appropriately could mean big savings if the market heads south.
When a market like Bay Colony starts to slide, so does interest in a particular product. For example at the peak of the market buyers will spend HUGE money on a new or incredibly remodeled property. Outdated properties become very difficult to sell. When a market slips, buyers look for ways to be smarter with their money. They’ll put in a little work if it means they can maximize their bottom line when they sell. That means those outdated properties become much more appealing and are easier to sell if they’re priced accordingly.
It would also be in your best interest to work with an agent who incorporates a really effective marketing strategy. Luxury agents with big market shares are the worst at adopting effective new marketing tools because
- A. It’s expensive
- B. It takes time
- C. They’re still capitalizing on past success so owners still think they’re the best.
Compare average market times between agents and see for yourself. Mine is under 60 days this year. But Shannon, wE aRen’T iN a HurRy tO sELL… None of my clients were either but take a peek at these two examples:
True Story: One of the Pelican Bay listings I took in the past year had already been on the market for 144 days with Sotheby’s International Realty. It didn’t sell so we got the shot. We listed it for the same price, incorporated my marketing strategy and had it under contract in 44 days with a 7% discount. (The same exact discount Bay Colony is getting.) This owner wasn’t in a hurry but she also didn’t have to pay 3 extra quarters of fees because we sold it. What do 3 quarters of fees equate to for you? Add that to your savings.
True Story: We were hired by another Pelican Bay owner who had been on the market for 579 days. We took the listing at the same price. I encouraged a 4% reduction 38 days after we listed it and it was under contract in 70 days and that’s with hardly any discount during negotiations. What is your monthly carry? Multiply your monthly carry by 19.
Let’s take Biltmore at Bay Colony as an example. Annual carry in fees is 37,810 + 32,500 for taxes + insurance + all the other garbage. You would spend 111,324 on fees and taxes alone if it took you 579 days to sell your place. If the average discount is 7% and you have to spend 111,324 to get 93% of your sales price or pay 17,577 to get 93% of your sales price which way would you want to go? Maybe it’s time we talk.
Buying in Bay Colony?
Great news for you Bay Colony Buyers! Sellers are already seeing current pricing isn’t cutting the mustard. 2 properties reduced their price this week and more reductions are surely headed our way. I helped my latest clients who purchased in Vizcaya at Bay Colony unit score an amazing deal and I can help you too.
Most of my shadow buyers are only mildly interested which means nothing is wowing them in regards to prices or offerings. In fact, there are zero pending properties in Bay Colony right now which means the entire world is not responding to current values.
Buyers are already watching out for those price reductions. How do I know? Because they have already signed up for my listing updates in Bay Colony so they get alerted every time there’s a change. They’re visiting those listings on my website and that tells me if there’s a doozy of a reduction or a superbly priced new listing, alerts are going to hit and there will be a buying response if the change is compelling enough. Avoid missing by signing up for those alerts here.
This could be a great time to feel like a bride when approaching sellers but don’t get ahead of yourself. If you haven’t read my latest post about low-balls in Naples, you’re going to want to read it. Just throwing a terrible number at a seller is probably going get you a black eye. Ask me how you can prevent that sort of chaos and how you can win a great deal like those new neighbors in Vizcaya!
On A Final Note
You may have noticed there’s a little storm brewing with a projected path possibly eyeballing the Naples area. The weather outlets are going to do an impressive job in sensationalizing our area for the next several days which is going to put South Florida topics of discussion on everybody’s radar.
My website is already garnering a mass increase in traffic. About 1/4 of this newfound traffic is opportunists looking for a deal. Half is going to come from family and friends of property owners who are just trying to get information on what’s really going on and the remaining quarter is going to be new people who develop a real attraction to our area.
It’s typical to see an increase in buying activity after a named storm kisses our State especially if we’re in the “cone of uncertainty.” If you have your eye on something you like be ready to strike when the coast is clear!
#PROTIP Negotiate right before the storm when the uncertainty is there and when your buying muscle is at its greatest and include a due diligence clause. That way you can walk if the damage is too great or seal the deal if impacts from the storm turn into a nothing sandwich. That way you’re not competing with new buyers for the property.
I hope you enjoyed my post. Thank you for reading it! Please reach out when you’re ready to buy or sell in Bay Colony. These posts don’t write themselves and we’ll do a terrific job for you!
Shannon Lefevre, PA
Your Naples Smart Girl!