Mediterra Forecast Season 2022-2023

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Mediterra Forecast Season 2022-2023

Hello Golf Enthusiasts,

I’m back catching you up on my favorite Naples neighborhoods again! Today, I’m covering Mediterra, what some past prospective buyers have nicknamed, Disneyland for golfers. This marks the eighth edition of my 2022-2023 Naples real estate forecasts for all of my favorite Naples neighborhoods. Last week, I covered the Gulf Shore Boulevard Forecast. Today, I’ll explain the real estate market, where it might be headed, and what it means to you if you plan on buying or selling this year. Here’s my Mediterra Forecast for Season 2022-2023.

Lucarno at Mediterra
Mediterra Home in Naples, Florida

In This Post:

• The One Big Talking Point
• Current Mediterra Market Statistics
• Projected Inventory Levels
• Comparison of past inventory reports
• What to expect

The One Big Talking Point

Mediterra had a big problem during the downturn caused by the financial crisis in 2009. Bonita Bay Group ran into serious financial issues, which caused the residents in Mediterra to unexpectedly and swiftly buy out the club. This decision came at a costly assessment for the club members and an aggressive push for new members. As a result, the residents ended up slaying that dragon by purchasing the club assets (including the beach club), and they’ve made wise decisions ever since. Timely renovations and maintenance have been well received.

Due to the controversy surrounding Bonita Bay Group, Mediterra saw some serious real estate softening. I’m here to tell you that even though the current market is softer than it has been, Mediterra owners are still making aggressive decisions to keep their real estate market strong! So strong, Mediterra has seen the least decrease in sales compared to Grey Oaks and Quail West.

Current Mediterra Statistics

Mediterra Forecast 2022-2023
Mediterra Forecast For Season 2022-2023

Current Inventory – 19 or three months of inventory.

Here are the details:

May Closings
2021 – 10
2022 – 13
June Closings
2021 – 11
2022 – 3
July – Closings
2021 – 3
2022 – 2
August Closings
2021 – 8
2022 – 3

There were 32 sales in Mediterra last May through August compared to 21 sales during the same time this year. Mediterra was performing even better than May last year but trailed off substantially once interest rate, gas hikes, and economic woes took over. July and August had a dismal performance compared to the year before, and many agents found themselves in a very different market. There are five properties pending today. While it’s possible all five could close this month, it’s doubtful. There were only three closings in September last year, so it should be relatively easy to match last September’s performance. Regardless, Mediterra is sitting on 56 sales for the year. By this time last year, there were 86.

Mediterra marks the first development during this trend where I saw my first price war. That’s when a new listing hits the market at a lower price, and older listings drop prices to compete. It worked too because there’s only one left in Porta Vecchio, and you can buy that one for $200,000 less than the original offering!

Another owner in Villoresi proclaimed “me first” by taking over $300,000 off their list price just a few days after a competitor hit the market.

Projected Inventory Levels

There were 15 listings or two months of active inventory when I posted my Inventory Report last June. There were only ten listings during my Naples Inventory Update last November. Today we’re at 19 listings or three months of inventory.

Only two listings punted off the market since April 1st and have not been re-listed or sold. Those aren’t going to change inventory levels much, but I expect higher levels based on the increasing market time.

What To Expect

Mediterra Real Estate
Mediterra Estate

I expect inventories to increase this year, and based on what I see, it could lead to more softening. The Farmer’s Almanac expects a snowy Winter, which nearly always means Naples will see more buyers. Owners have been intuitive about adjusting pricing to entice buyers. Some properties may sell relatively quickly compared to other luxury neighborhoods. Two properties currently under contract sold within four days, so you will want to sign up for new property notifications if you haven’t done so already.


Active market time is averaging 76 days today, or nearly 300% more than what it took for those past sales to sell during this past year. Not all news is bad. The list price per foot is up substantially compared to those same sales (so far). Some of your neighbors are betting on huge returns this year, causing an increase in market time and price reductions.

If you want your highest returns, you’ll want to price it right from the start or be ready to adjust your price if competition increases or new listings come in lower. Owners are already showing some aggressiveness. If your objective is to sell for the highest value, be ready to do the same. Even builders in Mediterra have made slight adjustments; if anybody has their finger on the pulse, you know they do.


8 of the 19 listings in Mediterra reduced their price to get your attention. That’s quite unusual, considering inventories typically need to be higher to see this much reduction activity. List prices on average are 3% less than their original offer prices, but market time has nearly tripled compared to what has sold during the past year.

If there’s any way you can pull the trigger within the next couple of weeks, you should get a better deal than those who wait until the season! The last buyer to close got nearly an 11% discount off the list price! There are some really beautiful offerings as well. If you’ve shied away from Mediterra because of that Mediterranean style, it’s worth taking a peek at what’s for sale. If remodeling is your forte, there are some options for you. Four homes are offering the ability to purchase a full golf membership with the home. That’s terrific news considering every club in Naples has an extensive waiting line.

I hope you enjoyed my Mediterra Forecast For Season 2022-2023. Next up is Moorings!

Call me with your questions and objectives or shoot me a text or email.

Best Regards,
Shannon Lefevre, PA
Your Naples Smart Girl!