PARK SHORE FORECAST SEASON 2022 – 2023
Park Shore Forecast Season 2022 – 2023
Hello Beach Enthusiasts,
I’ll cover Naples’s iconic skyline and beachfront community, Park Shore, home to The Village waterfront shopping, dining venue, and some of Naples’s most amazing beachfront high-rise properties. This marks the eleventh edition of my 2022-2023 Naples real estate forecasts for all my favorite Naples neighborhoods. Last month I covered Naples Cay Real Estate Forecast. Today, I’ll explain the current real estate market, where it might be headed, and what it means if you plan on buying or selling this year. Here’s my Park Shore Forecast for Season 2022 – 2023.
In This Post:
- The One Big Talking Point
- Current Park Shore Market Statistics
- Projected Inventory Levels
- Comparison of Past Inventory Reports
- New Disclosure and Fact Finding
- What to expect
The One Big Talking Point
Early speculation after the storm is producing at least two different theories from the most knowledgeable real estate agents regarding Park Shore single-family homes that were inundated by the Hurricane Ian storm surge. I’ll discuss that in the Park Shore home section of this post. While an overwhelming number of high-rise units were unscathed, an unimaginable amount of car damage, debris, and chaos occurred. An unprecedented cleanup is underway.
Needless to say, the storm damage is impacting nearly all Park Shore real estate, and the full effect on the market is still yet to be determined.
Current Park Shore Statistics
Current Inventory – There are 64 active listings today, or nearly three months of inventory. Last June, I reported less than two months of inventory, and in November, nearly a year ago, there was less than one month. While I expected a good increase in October, I certainly didn’t forecast the type of offerings we would see hit the market. Of the 27 listings that entered the market since the end of September, 16 homes were listed at lot value only. 6 damaged homes are under contract already.
Past Monthly Closing Activity In Park Shore
May
2021 – 49
2022 – 35
June
2021 – 54
2022 – 24
July
2021 – 29
2022 – 12
August
2021 – 17
2022 – 5
September
2021 – 19
2022 – 7
October
2021 – 9
*2022 – 6 (* partial month through October 26th)
There were 177 sales in Park Shore in 2021 between May and October compared to 89 during (nearly) the same time last year. While this may seem like an unfair comparison due to the storm and delay in some owners’ original plans, there’s abundant evidence suggesting a slowdown well before September. Inventory constraints hit Park Shore during the peak season earlier this year, there’s no question, but market times and inventory has been increasing ever since. One side believes the slowdown is because buyers could move more freely globally for the first time since the pandemic. Others question if it also has to do with the economic difficulties we’ve been experiencing since June. I believe it’s likely a combination of both.
Projected Inventory Levels
There is a great deal of uncertainty among our current Park Shore residents and prospective buyers. Curiosity regarding the condition of condominium common elements and possible assessments, along with the availability of new habitable home listings, is high. Many questions remain unanswered and will take more time to determine. Here’s a look at the market based on building design for a better understanding.
Single Family Homes In Park Shore
Active – 31
Pending – 12
Closed Past Year – 39
There are 9.5 months of single-family inventory in Park Shore. Traditionally, 12 months of inventory is considered a stable market, and inventory levels over 12 months often result in price reduction and lower-priced new listing activity. 11 homes active on the market have already reduced their price to attract a buyer. Some damaged homes that were originally priced well are already pending. Some homes that may not have experienced storm surges have also reduced prices.
High-Rise Condos In Park Shore
Active – 14
Pending – 6
Closed Past Year – 137
There’s just over one month of high-rise inventory in Park Shore, and only two listings have hit the open market since Hurricane Ian’s landfall. Historically, many residents have not listed their properties while buildings undergo clean-up, inspections, remodeling, etc. So far, it mostly remains true today. Despite the low inventory, half of the current inventory has adjusted prices down to attract a buyer. One condo in Allegro was reduced by over $500,000 or 25%, marking the biggest reduction in Naples this week.
While some condo owners may opt to list today, many buyers may wait until final determinations are made for possible assessments or repairs to pools, parking garages, and other common elements. Others may wait to see how insurance companies will respond.
Vacant Lot Owners and Buyers, Beware
We are already seeing evidence of lot sale scams. Criminals are pretending to be owners of vacant lots and attempting to sell properties that don’t belong to them. If you own a vacant lot or are in the market to purchase a vacant lot, contact me on ways you can protect yourself from this activity.
Low-Rise, Mid-Rise, and Villas
Active – 18
Pending – 4
Closed – 80
Even though there are only 2.7 months of inventory available with this product, eight of the 18 properties for sale have reduced their price to attract a buyer. Still, there isn’t any reduction as sizable as that high-rise unit I mentioned earlier. I see evidence of damage in some locations but not all. You can expect properties on Gulf Shore Boulevard to have experienced issues on their ground floors, including pool, first-floor common areas, and possibly elevator issues. There are some reports of high water damage in areas as far East as Colonnade and Villas of Park Shore, but there is no mention of surge damage in areas located further West.
New Disclosure and Fact Finding
Attorneys who assist the Naples Area Board of REALTORS have now drafted a new disclosure in response to Hurricane Ian. In a nutshell, it says, before entering an agreement, consult legal advisors, lenders, and insurance companies regarding repairs, restoration, pending insurance claims, levied or potential Ian-related special assessments, financing and or insurance coverage, etc. Many of you already know that all attorneys are not built the same. There could likely be many “I don’t know” responses until we sort it out. That could result in condos entering the market, going under contract, and returning to the market after answers can’t be given.
On a much-needed lighter note, we are seeing more responsiveness from insurance companies who have begun writing new policies again.
What To Expect
I mentioned two current theories about where the Park Shore market is headed. Some of my highly esteemed and extremely successful colleagues are predicting Park Shore to see a remarkable surge of activity and continue at record-breaking paces.
In my years of researching markets that have experienced catastrophic events throughout the U.S., I’ve found it’s common for there to be an initial surge of interest and buying activity. Historically, it hasn’t lasted long in other areas. Many people are already questioning if Naples attracts the amount of cash it will require to teardown and rebuild at the pace many are already expecting.
Even if we can locate the massive amounts of licensed manpower needed to assist us, and if permitting entities will play along, will the economy and buyer’s enthusiasm persist well enough to fuel the success my colleagues are expecting? My personal theory is a little different. Call me if you want to know more about how I think it will play out.
One thing is for certain, there will be a dramatic rebirth of new beautiful single-family homes once some of these older-styled homes disappear and are replaced with amazing new construction. In condo buildings where lobbies were inundated, you can also expect some beautifully remasted designs there. The Parks and Beaches will be restored. Park Shore will recover and appear younger than ever, even if there’s a little discrepancy in timing and price.
Contact Shannon for more information on Park Shore real estate.