Pelican Bay Forecast Season 2022 – 2023
Hello Beach, Golf and Tennis Enthusiasts,
Today, I’m covering Naples’s most popular beach club community, Pelican Bay. Home to three beach clubs, a gorgeous twenty-seven-hole private golf course, and a thriving tennis community. This marks the 12th edition of my 2022-2023 Naples real estate forecasts for all my favorite Naples neighborhoods. Last month I covered the Park Shore Real Estate Forecast. Today, I’ll explain the current real estate market, where it might be headed, and what it means if you plan on buying or selling this year. Here’s my Pelican Bay Forecast for Season 2022 – 2023.
IN THIS POST:
- The THREE Big Talking Points
- Current Pelican Bay Market Statistics
- Projected Inventory Levels
- Comparison of Past Inventory Reports
- New Disclosure and Fact Finding
- What to expect
THE THREE BIG TALKING POINTS
Pelican Bay suffered some surge damage to the westernmost properties. The beach clubs in Pelican Bay are still closed due to the storm damage. South Beach is expected to open in mid-January with limited services. Repairs are being made to North Beach, and will offer full services once it’s open. When North Beach opens, South Beach will close, and improvements to that club will be made. The fitness center and all tennis courts are operating.
Bay Colony was the hardest-hit community. The speed of clean-up and restoration compared to other beachfront communities is mind-blowing. This development’s historical resiliency will only be outmatched by its present response. Obvious evidence of the storm is fading fast in Bay Colony, with the first signs starting as far back as the turn by the Ritz Carlton in the form of some landscape burn in the hedge line separating the Ritz from Bay Colony. I absolutely cannot believe the cleanup that has occurred in barely over two months. The landscaping at Carlysle’s entrance looks amazing! The Bay Colony Beach Club opened on Tuesday with limited service by the Chickee bar. Residents were already enjoying the early colors of a beautiful sunset when I arrived at 5:00.
The board finally approved a study for adding pickleball courts to the back of the Pelican Bay Fitness Center parking lot! The Pelican Bay Pickleball community is super excited to get the pickleball rolling!
CURRENT PELICAN BAY STATISTICS
Current Inventory – There are 59 active listings today, or two months of inventory. Last June, I reported less than one month of inventory, and in November of last year, there was .37 of one month.
Past Monthly Closing Activity In Pelican Bay
2021 – 74
2022 – 41
2021 – 46
2022 – 31
2021 – 37
2022 – 12
2021 – 27
2022 – 14
2021 – 31
2022 – 12
2021 – 34
2022 – 18
There were 249 sales in Pelican Bay in 2021 between May and October compared to 128 during the same time last year. While this may seem like an unfair comparison due to the storm and delay in original plans, there’s abundant evidence suggesting a slowdown as early as June, considering it takes a little time between contract and closing. Inventory constraints hit Pelican Bay during the peak season of 2022 and were unprecedentedly low, with only 11 listings at the lowest. There are normally around 300.
PROJECTED INVENTORY LEVELS
I expect inventories to rise this pre-season and continue to rise through January but not enough to shift the market into a Buyer’s market. Prices might ease, but negotiations will stiffen again if we see the expected buyer traffic in January. Many industry experts are united with the impression that the season will be busy as the weather gets blistery up north and more amenities open back up. Your best bet is to purchase before high season brings more buyer competition, making it tougher for you to negotiate.
Here’s a look at the market based on building design for a better understanding.
Single-Family Homes In Pelican Bay
Active – 14
Pending – 3
Closed Past Year – 39
There are four months of single-family inventory in Pelican Bay. Traditionally, 12 months of inventory is considered a stable market, and inventory levels over 12 months often result in price reduction and lower-priced new listing activity. Only one home has reduced its price to attract a buyer, while the others remain confident with the
High-Rise Condos In Pelican Bay
Active – 19
Pending – 4
Closed Past Year – 124
There are less than two months of inventory of Pelican Bay high rises. Four high-rise condos are priced lower than they originally hit the market. The average market time is 82 days, up from 26 compared to what was sold during the past year. While we are still seeing full-priced sales in the Pelican Bay high-rise market, we are also starting to see some interesting discounting. For example, a condo in St. Raphael closed in November for 8% off the full list price, and the most recent sale for an apartment in Mystique closed with a 7% discount.
If you’re looking for something completely ready for enjoyment, check out this fabulous Remington at Bay Colony condo for sale. It’s beautifully furnished and offers a dramatic span of linear exposure, so you never have to miss one of Naples’s fabulous sunsets again!
Low-Rise Condos in Pelican Bay
Active – 13
Pending – 7
Closed Past Year – 88
There are less than two months of low-rise inventory today, with market time averaging 34 days compared to 13 days for the closed sales during the past year. This market remains pretty tight, with the last three sales in November selling for a 100% list.
If you’re looking for an amazing low-rise condo offering, consider this Avalon at Pelican Bay condo featuring three bedrooms plus a den, two and a half baths, and one car private garage!
Villas in Pelican Bay
Active – 5
Pending – 2
Closed Past Year – 27
There are just two months of villa inventory. Market time is 55 days compared to 11 for closed sales for the past year. The last full-price sale to close occurred in July, with discounting since starting at nearly 4% and as high as 9% for a Villas at Pelican Bay home.
WHAT TO EXPECT
If the colleagues I’ve spoken with are right, you can expect buying traffic to pick up substantially in January. If you’re considering buying, your best shot might be when buyers aren’t tripping over each other as they have in recent years.
You want to book accommodations early!
- The Ritz Carlton on the beach is expected to be out of commission until at least June. I’ve been told contractors are working around the clock to complete the latest addition and repair storm-related damage. If they continue to be as busy as they were at 5:00 on Tuesday, I believe they can accomplish their objective.
- La Playa is opening as early as mid-December with a “phased re-opening.”
- Naples Grande is open now with all amenities except the Clam Pass Beach experience. They currently offer tram service to Seagate Beach. They are opening their Clam Pass Beach access on December 23!
I already hear complaints from clients about booked flights. Book those flights early to avoid disappointment!
I hope you enjoyed my Pelican Bay forecast for 2022-2023. If I can answer any questions or you would like an appointment, please get in touch with me today to reserve your time.
Shannon Lefevre, PA
Naples Smart Girl
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